The American Group Human Rights First are taking a strong stance on Bahrain. They have just issued a report and their conclusions are as follows:
Since 2011 the United States has devoted considerable
diplomatic resources to Bahrain, in a two-fold strategy:
This strategy has largely failed, and the United States
needs to develop an alternative to support a stable
transition to democracy and the rule of law. There is no
status quo in Bahrain, and an inflammation of national and
regional sectarianism further threatens a peaceful solution
to the crisis. Political and economic stability is an illusion,
and pro-democracy activists are growing desperate. There
will either be reform, or a descent into worsening violence
with a sectarian edge that some U.S. officials are already
privately comparing to Lebanon and Syria.
The focus of a new strategy should be to publicly seek
new partners inside or outside the government who can
bring about the required transition, including more public
support for opposition figures inside and outside of jail.
Bahrain needs a leadership to walk the country out of its
current crisis, one that recognizes that time is running out
for a peaceful transition to real democracy and the rule of
law. In the absence of such leadership and reform,
protestors are increasingly likely to look for succor from
Iran.
A second key element of the strategy should be to
undermine the creeping sectarianism taking root in
Bahrain, with some restaurants and coffee shops being
designated as “Sunni” or “Shia.” Workplace and school
interactions between people from different sects are
increasingly strained, and the makeup of the security
forces should reflect the communities they serve.
Wholesale reform of the security sector is crucial, including
accountability for past violations. The United States can
support Bahrain security sector reform through rigorous
implementation of the ‘Leahy Law,’ designed to withhold
assistance from any unit of the security forces of a country
where there is credible evidence that anyone in that unit
has committed a gross violation of human rights.
If the political and human rights situation in Bahrain does
not improve, the vital military assets of the Fifth Fleet could
become a tool not only for a corrupt regime, but also a
symbol of American weakness and hypocrisy. The United
States may not be able to control the outcome, but––for its
own strategic interests and the good of the Bahraini
people—it should do everything it can to persuade the
regime to choose the right path.
The government of Bahrain regularly blames Iran as an
outside agitator of the protests, and in November 2013
four men were sentenced to life and six others to 15 years
in jail on charges of establishing a militant cell linked to
Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Claims that Iran is helping to
mastermind the protest movement have been made for
some years now, with little evidence produced. As the BICI
report drily noted, “The evidence presented to the
Commission by the GoB on the involvement by the Islamic
Republic of Iran in the internal affairs of Bahrain does not
establish a discernible link between specific incidents that
occurred in Bahrain during February and March 2011 and
the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The current thaw in U.S.–Iran relations might lessen
tensions over possible Iranian involvement, but real fears
remain that Iran would be happy to exploit the turbulence
in Bahrain. Such intervention appears likely to become a
self-fulfilling prophecy the longer the current impasse
continues, with protestors seeing little movement from the
regime and few consequences from international
governments for the lack of reform. The temptation for
protestors to turn to Iran for help is likely to increase.
In developing a new strategy, the U.S. government should
publicly inform the Bahraini government that the future of
the Fifth Fleet requires political and social stability, which,
at a minimum, requires the protection of human rights and
their defenders, and there will be consequences to the
partnership if the government of Bahrain does not
adequately reform to provide that.
The December 2013 Manama Dialogue––an annual forum
organized by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies to exchange views on regional security
challenges––offers an immediate opportunity for the U.S.
government to press this approach directly at a senior
level. The United States should send senior officials from
the State Department and the Department of Defense to
the regional security summit to make clear, in person, to
their Bahraini counterparts that the current situation is
untenable and that political prisoners should be
immediately released.
New measures could range from incentive to punitive, but
the U.S. government cannot accept promises of reform as
evidence of reform.
Specifically, the U.S. government should:
Since 2011 the United States has devoted considerable
diplomatic resources to Bahrain, in a two-fold strategy:
- encourage the government of Bahrain to fulfill its promises to implement recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) report commissioned in 2011 by Bahraini King Hamad; and
- bolster the crown prince and the “reformist” wing of the monarchy in the hope that it can deliver reform.
This strategy has largely failed, and the United States
needs to develop an alternative to support a stable
transition to democracy and the rule of law. There is no
status quo in Bahrain, and an inflammation of national and
regional sectarianism further threatens a peaceful solution
to the crisis. Political and economic stability is an illusion,
and pro-democracy activists are growing desperate. There
will either be reform, or a descent into worsening violence
with a sectarian edge that some U.S. officials are already
privately comparing to Lebanon and Syria.
The focus of a new strategy should be to publicly seek
new partners inside or outside the government who can
bring about the required transition, including more public
support for opposition figures inside and outside of jail.
Bahrain needs a leadership to walk the country out of its
current crisis, one that recognizes that time is running out
for a peaceful transition to real democracy and the rule of
law. In the absence of such leadership and reform,
protestors are increasingly likely to look for succor from
Iran.
A second key element of the strategy should be to
undermine the creeping sectarianism taking root in
Bahrain, with some restaurants and coffee shops being
designated as “Sunni” or “Shia.” Workplace and school
interactions between people from different sects are
increasingly strained, and the makeup of the security
forces should reflect the communities they serve.
Wholesale reform of the security sector is crucial, including
accountability for past violations. The United States can
support Bahrain security sector reform through rigorous
implementation of the ‘Leahy Law,’ designed to withhold
assistance from any unit of the security forces of a country
where there is credible evidence that anyone in that unit
has committed a gross violation of human rights.
If the political and human rights situation in Bahrain does
not improve, the vital military assets of the Fifth Fleet could
become a tool not only for a corrupt regime, but also a
symbol of American weakness and hypocrisy. The United
States may not be able to control the outcome, but––for its
own strategic interests and the good of the Bahraini
people—it should do everything it can to persuade the
regime to choose the right path.
The government of Bahrain regularly blames Iran as an
outside agitator of the protests, and in November 2013
four men were sentenced to life and six others to 15 years
in jail on charges of establishing a militant cell linked to
Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Claims that Iran is helping to
mastermind the protest movement have been made for
some years now, with little evidence produced. As the BICI
report drily noted, “The evidence presented to the
Commission by the GoB on the involvement by the Islamic
Republic of Iran in the internal affairs of Bahrain does not
establish a discernible link between specific incidents that
occurred in Bahrain during February and March 2011 and
the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The current thaw in U.S.–Iran relations might lessen
tensions over possible Iranian involvement, but real fears
remain that Iran would be happy to exploit the turbulence
in Bahrain. Such intervention appears likely to become a
self-fulfilling prophecy the longer the current impasse
continues, with protestors seeing little movement from the
regime and few consequences from international
governments for the lack of reform. The temptation for
protestors to turn to Iran for help is likely to increase.
In developing a new strategy, the U.S. government should
publicly inform the Bahraini government that the future of
the Fifth Fleet requires political and social stability, which,
at a minimum, requires the protection of human rights and
their defenders, and there will be consequences to the
partnership if the government of Bahrain does not
adequately reform to provide that.
The December 2013 Manama Dialogue––an annual forum
organized by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies to exchange views on regional security
challenges––offers an immediate opportunity for the U.S.
government to press this approach directly at a senior
level. The United States should send senior officials from
the State Department and the Department of Defense to
the regional security summit to make clear, in person, to
their Bahraini counterparts that the current situation is
untenable and that political prisoners should be
immediately released.
New measures could range from incentive to punitive, but
the U.S. government cannot accept promises of reform as
evidence of reform.
Specifically, the U.S. government should:
- Publicly state U.S. concerns about the deteriorating situation and the potential for large-scale violence, emphasizing that it can be avoided only through reform, not repression.
- Amplify this message via senior officials in State Department and the Department of Defense urging the release of the peaceful opposition figures and other political prisoners, and ask to visit them in prison in the meantime. President Obama should publicly reiterate the call for the release of all peaceful political leaders from jail.
- Publicly announce it will continue to meet Bahraini opposition figures without the presence of a Bahraini government representative, and promptly do so.
- Send senior representatives from the Departments of State and Defense to the Manama Dialogue in December 2013 to press for the release of political prisoners and other essential reforms.
- Defend U.S. officials under attack by the government of Bahrain and its representatives for their advocacy of human rights and reform, including by publicly responding to the attacks and issuing demarches.
- Press to reduce the influence of those responsible for human rights violations inside and outside of the government. It should consider imposing visa bans and freezing assets of those it believes guilty of human rights violations.
- Withhold arms sales and transfers to the police and military, contingent on human rights progress, starting with a request for the current representation levels of Shias in the police and military to be made publicly available with a view to establishing recruitment and promotion targets for underrepresented groups.
- Vigorously implement the Leahy Law governing U.S. military and other security assistance to Bahrain.
- Promote the State Department March 2013 guidelines titled U.S. Support for Human Rights Defenders to Bahraini civil society, including in Arabic.
- Engage, via the U.S. embassy in Manama, more closely and regularly with a broad range of human rights defenders in Bahrain by calling and visiting them, and visiting their families if they are in jail.
- Publicly call for international media and international human rights organizations to be afforded meaningful access to Bahrain.
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