BAHRAIN REPORT: IMAGINING A WAY FORWARD

This report is compiled by Bahrain Human Rights Monitor and the Next Century Foundation in cooperation with the Value Web. 

Please note that we have not addressed the full history of the situation or analysed the underlying tensions in Bahrain that make such a report necessary - on the assumption that the reader will be aware of the background.

Note also that we have not, in every instance, detailed the specific approach that should be adopted, for instance we have suggested that there should be greater female participation in government without stating which mechanism is appropriate to facilitate this (e.g. quotas). Similarly we have addressed the importance of full participation in forthcoming parliamentary elections without addressing the question of whether they should be held more expeditiously than presently planned. 

Report No. 59 dated: 7^th July 2013

Bahrain: Imagining a way forward

RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE KEY PLAYERS

Bahrain stands at an important crossroads. At this moment in time its troubles remain low-level in terms of disruption and violence. The national dialogue has resumed, though it will be suspended for Ramadan by mutual consent (note that when it reconvenes it might be helpful if opposition representation in the dialogue was reinforced). Meanwhile, the radical opposition movements under the umbrella of a loose coalition called the “February 14th movement”, protest by blocking roads with burning tyres and throwing Molotov cocktails. These elements are yet to turn to more drastic measures. The dialogue should continue in order to ensure that the people of Bahrain have legitimate choices for the national elections (currently due to take place late in 2014 though some believe that parliament should be dissolved and fresh elections held sooner – subject to the revision of constituency boundaries).

The full participation by the mainstream opposition in the forthcoming elections is vital to the future of stability in Bahrain. Bahrain’s problems are not beyond repair. This report outlines recommendations to the six major parties whose input could play a role in shaping the future of Bahrain.

This report recommends that the monarchy should continue to introduce reforms with significant concessions, particularly in the areas of popular representation and freedom of expression; this would benefit all sectors of the Bahraini society, including the opposition, who should in turn openly and clearly denounce violence, and acknowledge a well defined and accepted future role for the Monarch in the government of Bahrain in a way that would allay the fears of the establishment.

More importantly, it should be stressed that Bahrain’s problems should, wherever possible, not be viewed through a sectarian lens. This is not, per se, a Sunni-Shiite conflict. Essentially the issue concerns the degree ofÓ Y7Y reform to be implemented in Bahrain.

The momentous events of 3 July 2013 in Egypt, the 14 June presidential result in Iran, and even the leadership transition in neighbouring Qatar have relevance for Bahrain. Just as the peoples of the two largest countries in the Middle East are renewing their insistence on creating governments which will focus on their rights, dignity, and the rule of law, so too should the Kingdom of Bahrain use these events to rebalance its own political destiny. The recognition that the time has come for a younger generation of leaders to begin handling the affairs of state is also a point which should resonate in Bahrain.

The recommendations contained in this proposal are all geared towards this end -- to reintroduce harmony into the Bahrain political setting and to restore an environment where opportunity and security are available to all citizens.

With discussions under the National Dialogue in abeyance over the period of Holy Ramadan, the celebrations of "Id al-Fitr" at the end of this month of fasting and reflection offers His Majesty an opportunity to re-invigorate the reform process of his country with a commitment to our proposals which would secure the future stability and prosperity of the Kingdom.

The key observations and recommendations for the Key Players:

The following report is the outcome of deliberations by the Next Century Foundation (NCF), Bahrain Human Rights Monitor (BHRM) and The Value Web. The NCF and BHRM have compiled what we hope is a consistent report. It should be noted that not everybody consulted in the preparation of this report can be said to have subscribed to its full and final text:

The recommendations to the Monarchy and the Government

The Government should respect the principle of freedom of speech and expression. It should tolerate criticism no matter how harsh as long as it does not involve incitement to hatred or violence. The Government should also respect the right to association and the right to assembly as long as it is being conducted peacefully and according to the law.

The Government should take the necessary measures to ensure that no inflammatory rhetoric is ever used to cast doubt on the loyalty of any citizen or a group of people and prohibit the use of sectarian discourse by any party.

The Government should enhance the ongoing dialogue with the opposition. The Government and all the concerned parties need to recognize the necessity for compromise.

Specific Recommendations for the Government:

1. Electoral Reform – In today’s Bahrain, disparate constituency size affects fair representation in parliament. In the 2010 elections, the five largest districts by electorate were all won by Al Wefaq, while the five smallest districts were all won by other candidates. The average electorate size for districts won by Al Wefaq was over 10,000, while for the rest it was less than 6,300. In total, the number of eligible voters in districts won by Al Wefaq was 181, 238, while the total in those districts won by others was 137,430 — and yet this translated into only 18 parliamentary seats for Al Wefaq, while other groups were victorious in 22.

In order to combat this irregularity, this report suggests a move to proportional representation with a single national constituency. We recommend that there be a minimum 5% threshold for representation within parliament to prevent radical groups being given a platform. We also recommend (without attempting to lay down how this should be achieved) that there be a higher representation of women, who won only one seat in the last full parliamentary elections in 2010 and now hold just four after the by-elections in 2011.  The net result of these reforms would be to make the electoral system fairer and more representative.

Currently no international monitoring is allowed. Trust in the election process needs to be restored.

Power Sharing - The authority to select a cabinet should be jointly vested in the King and the Council of Representatives. According to the latest constitutional amendments that entered into effect on May 3^rd 2012, the House of Representatives are already able to act independently, in a motion akin to a vote of no-confidence in the cabinet, to force the King to either relieve the cabinet from office and appoint a new cabinet, or dissolve the Parliament, albeit after consultations with the Chairmen of both the Shura and the Representatives’ Councils in addition to the Chairman of the Constitutional court. This amendment represents a positive step that may lead to the granting of even more powers to the elected Parliament; the King himself has confirmed that reform is an evolutionary process that will continue (new amendments must be put in place so that the cabinet represents the outcome of elections and that the cabinet must win a vote of confidence).

The king also has the power to listen to petitions from individuals, as is traditional in Arab societies.  It is important that the king maintain this power as to do so would reassure the traditionalists in the population in the country and maintain their confidence in the reform process

3. Bill of Rights – A bill of rights should be drawn up to protect the liberty of the citizens of Bahrain and bring the actions of the state into line with international conventions on human rights, including the right to religious freedom, free media and free speech. This bill of rights should be enforced by an independent judiciary, selected and appointed by the King under the guidance and consent of parliament. In this respect, the steps taken so far by the Government to ensure conformity with international standards, such as the step taken regarding the definition of torture in Bahrain’s penal code, should be viewed favourably. Bahrain has ratified the International Covenant for Civil and Political Rights, and a special court needs to be set-up so that all laws that contravene this internationally binding covenant are nullified.
4. Accountability – To continue the process of holding to account members of the security forces found to have broken the law or otherwise to have committed abuses of human rights. Also to promote respect for the rule of law by ensuring that all citizens and residents of Bahrain are held accountable for offences such as exploiting public office for private enrichment, and enforce transparency in government financial dealings and the financial holdings and interests of all officials of the cabinet.
5. Release of Prisoners of Conscience – The government should release prisoners of conscience. One of the major sources of contention both domestically and internationally has been the detention of activists because of online posts and involvement in demonstrations. These people are often charged with stirring up unrest or writing anti-monarchy statements. Freeing such people would demonstrate the government’s adherence to and recognition of internationally and nationally recognised principles of freedom of speech and expression. We take note of the Prosecutor-General’s announcement on May 18th that  it was decided to drop charges that contravene Bahrain's commitment to uphold the principles of freedom of speech and expression, and that relevant  legislative amendments have been introduced to that effect . While we applaud the fact that at least 334 of those facing charges have benefited from that decision, including the medical staff at Salmaniya Hospital and those accused of conspiracy to topple the government, we sincerely hope that this pattern will continue and that the courts would demonstrate full compliance in that respect.
6. The Rebuilding of Mosques – The Government should speed up the process of rebuilding the Shi’a mosques damaged or destroyed in the past three years. This would help rebuild trust between the authorities and the Shiite community in a way that could alleviate some of the prevailing sectarian tension. We welcome the announcement by the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Justice and Islamic Affairs last April 2013 of a scheduled rebuilding plan, and hope that such a plan would ensure the speedy rebuilding of all the affected religious sites as detailed in the BICI report’s recommendations. Having said which, it should be stressed however, that Bahrain’s problems should, wherever possible, not be viewed through a sectarian lens. This is not, per se, a Sunni-Shiite conflict. There are Sunnis amongst the opposition and Shiites who support the government. Essentially the issue concerns the degree of reform to be implemented in Bahrain.
7. The Independence of the official media – The Government should guarantee the independence of state-owned Media by putting it under the supervision of an independent body approved by Parliament. Royal Decree No. 47 / 2013 established a Supreme Independent Authority for Information and Communication. We hope that this represents a step towards greater press freedom rather than an attempt to impose greater control on journalists; whilst at the same time we hope this new body will adopt a criteria and principles that would ensure the elimination of any sectarian excesses within state-owned media institutions.
8. Decentralisation of Power – Trust can be re-established by devolution of power to local authorities.      This is particularly the case when it comes to policing and the security forces. Policing should be staffed and controlled locally with minimal central control. There should nevertheless also be a national police regulatory body with oversight over the domestic intelligence agencies. Further to decentralising the police force, there should also be more municipal power to provide services, e.g. local control of schools and housing. The strengthening of local governance would greatly help to address the major political, economic and social grievances as it would allow people to decide through their elected councillors in all matters that affect their day to day life in the areas of employment, education, healthcare, security and policing.
9. Improve negotiating skills – The negotiating skills of both the opposition and the government are poor. Both sides tend to be confrontational and to wish to score points as if on the battlefield rather than trying to create the best possible outcome for the future of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The government is best placed to change the culture of confrontation by being more conciliatory in its approach to negotiations.  
10. Cooperation with the International Community – The Government should refrain from entertaining any thought of ceasing to cooperate with, or denying access to, international human rights organisations. It is important that the Bahrain Government realise that denying these organisations proper access to the country will only serve to confirm the perception that Bahrain has something to hide. Cooperation with international NGOs should be an essential component of Bahrain’s endeavour to promote its human rights standing.

The recommendations to The Opposition

Al Wefaq is a major opposition voice. It occupied eighteen out of the forty seats in parliament after the last full parliamentary election in 2010. Al Wefaq’s threat of non-participation in the elections next year is an understandable tactic to try to gain some leverage in discussions but it is unhelpful in the context of trying to engender an open and progressive national dialogue. It would not bode well for the future of Bahrain if elections were to take place next year without the participation of Al Wefaq.

There are, of course, other opposition parties, such as Waad and the Progressive Democratic Tribune as well as the underground youth movements partly responsible for the unrest on the streets. A sincere effort should be made by Al Wefaq (with the government's concurrence) to bring some if not all of these divergent, dissonant voices into the mainstream discussions. This would ensure that the focus is not solely on Al-Wefaq and that other sections of the opposition are represented to ensure the future stability of Bahrain.

Mainstream opposition groups could attract more marginalised voters by demonstrating that they can be a real alternative. Bringing members of the “February 14^th” movement into the political process is important. The mainstream opposition should attempt to appeal to the less hard-line elements of this movement through a change in rhetoric.

Specific Recommendations for the opposition:

1. Denounce Violence:  One of the key issues for Bahrain is the violence and unrest on the streets.  Al-Wefaq should keep protests peaceful and refrain from inflammatory rhetoric. It should rein in the radical elements and make it unequivocally clear that Al-Wefaq denounces violence and those who resort to it. It should, accordingly, distance itself from any group that would not embrace the principles of peaceful participation in domestic political life. The party should announce that it will do this unilaterally, even if opposed by radical opposition groups or prominent clerics. Ideally, Sheikh Isa Qassim will endorse the principle of non-violence and join Al-Wefaq and other elements of Bahraini society in denouncing violence perpetrated by either government or opposition supporters, regardless of affiliation.

The undertaking to unilaterally denounce violence would represent a powerful gesture rather than a concession. A gesture of this kind would also put the onus on the government to then deliver genuine compromise.  

2. Continue to participate in dialogue with the government as well as with non-Shi’ite political societies such as the National Unity Gathering, with a view to reaching an agreement on meaningful political reform. Had the opposition heeded the initial call for dialogue by the Crown Prince, it might have averted the current crisis.
3. Openly acknowledge a well defined role for the Monarchy in the future of Bahrain The opposition objective should be to seek an expansion of political rights, not to overthrow the monarchy. It should also acknowledge that the king will have a pivotal role in the transition to a more democratic Bahrain. This will help alleviate the fears of the Sunni population were a significant power shift to emerge, and prevent a potential Sunni backlash against any electoral reform concessions.
4. Greater Representation for Women – There needs to be greater representation of minorities within the mainstream opposition parties. This is particularly the case with Al Wefaq and the other Islamist parties, which have no women representatives. If the government of Bahrain is going to be representative of the people, it must have a number of women representatives.

Measures should be taken towards ensuring that parties are formed on a non-sectarian basis, which would incidentally, however, produce a fairer representation of the religions within the country.

There is also a real need to empower younger people by involving the youth of Bahrain in the mainstream political parties.

5. Wider Policy Reach – The anti-government parties need to work on their policies so as to offer something more than mere opposition to the current government.   They need to state a clear economic and social manifesto, so people know what they will do when elected.
6. Encourage Shiite Participation in Various Areas – As part of the BICI report recommendations it was advised that Shiites be integrated into the security forces.

This is a recommendation that has partially been taken up with hiring of police cadets that according to the government represent “all communities in Bahrain”. Whilst this is something that needs to be facilitated locally, the opposition can have an impact on the Shiite community by encouraging them to take up these roles of responsibility when they become available.

The recommendations to Saudi Arabia

The special relationship between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia allows the latter to play a positive role in the future of Bahrain particularly with the knowledge that events in Bahrain could spill into its own borders and cause unwanted unrest in certain Saudi regions. The Saudi forces constituted the bulk of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) forces that entered Bahrain in March 2011 to safeguard Bahrain’s security and sovereignty. Riyadh’s interest lies in a swift and painless end to the unrest in Bahrain.

Furthermore, the longer the unrest goes on, the more influence an opportunistic Iran could begin to wield amongst a further disenfranchised Shiite community. Added to this, Saudi Arabia, as a regional power, would want to be seen as a major contributor to bringing about a peaceful settlement to the crisis in Bahrain.

Recommendations:

1. Saudi Arabia should pursue a policy that publicly supports efforts to resolve the crisis in Bahrain through dialogue and meaningful reforms.
2. For the sake of stability in Bahrain and the region, Saudi Arabia should work closely with friends and allies such as the United States to encourage all parties to the Bahrain crisis to seek a peaceful conclusion to their conflict and to pursue the reforms stipulated in its National Action Charter and further reinforced by the recommendation of the BICI report.
3. Direct Aid to Support Reform – Saudi Arabia should use its economic influence over Bahrain to directly support reforms as they emerge. For example, Saudi Arabia could support the continued professionalization of the police force and the eradication of corruption and torture, as suggested by BICI report, through direct aid.

The recommendations to The United States and United Kingdom

The US and UK have a special relationship with Bahrain and the USA has had a naval command presence in Bahrain for over sixty years. The US and UK should continue to encourage all parties to seek a peaceful outcome to the crisis.

Recommendations:

1. The US and UK should continue to encourage Bahrain to adhere to international human rights standards, and by the same token encourage the government to move forward by acknowledging whatever positive steps it takes in that respect.  It should also make it clear that transgressions by the Bahrain opposition, such as the use of violence, terror tactics and public disorder would equally not be tolerated.
2. Encourage Dialogue – In partnership with Saudi Arabia, the USA and UK should continue to deploy their diplomatic influence to persuade all parties involved in the dialogue process to reach some compromise. The NCF and BHRM contend that the USA and UK could offer practical advice on policy decisions and offer inducement (rather than the threat of sanctions). Their efforts to encourage dialogue should be unremitting.
3. Expert/Technical Training – Both the US and UK could offer Bahrain some valuable assistance and technical support in its endeavour to reform the judiciary systems.
4. Greater Trade Links – In order to lessen some of the dependence that Bahrain has on Saudi Arabia, the US could help Bahrain to improve its economic standing by increasing trade links with the country. A free trade agreement (FTA) was signed between Bahrain and USA on September 14th 2004. In 2011, the United States exported $1.21 billion worth of goods to Bahrain, about the same amount as in 2010. Where imports are concerned, the United States imported $518 million in goods from Bahrain, substantially more than the $420 million imported in 2010. In 2005, total bilateral trade was about $780 million, suggesting that trade has expanded significantly following the FTA. However, in light of the unrest, the AFL-CIO has urged the United States to void the FTA on the grounds that Bahrain is preventing free association of workers and abridging their rights.   It is imperative for Bahrain that this does not happen as Bahrain has little cushion to deal with economic downturns, especially since the unrest caused Moody’s to downgrade Bahrain’s rating in May 2011, making it more expensive for the government to borrow.

Bahrain badly needs to diversify away from dependence on Saudi oil, which it has done through emphasizing banking and financial services, and increased trade with USA can only help in this regard.

The recommendations to Iran

No matter what the real importance of the role played by Iran within Bahrain, it is in Iran’s own interest to work to prevent the destabilisation in the Gulf that could ensue were radical groups to gain the ascendancy in Bahrain and the rest of the region.  The victory of President-elect Hassan Rouhani in Iran presents a real opportunity for a new start in the relationship between Bahrain and Iran, a new beginning that both sides should encourage.

Recommendations:

1. Renounce claim to Bahrain as “14th province” of Iran. Iran should officially announce its renunciation of any territorial claim over Bahrain and openly declare its respect for Bahrain’s sovereignty.
2. Support non-violence – Iran should publicly call for an end to violence and aim to bring about a peaceful conclusion to the protests. Iran has been accused of inciting violence and sectarian hatred in Bahrain and fuelling unrest. Iran should put an end to its hostile and divisive media campaign in favour of a more balanced approach if regional peace and harmony are to be maintained.
3. Liaise with the Government – Iran can also use normal diplomatic avenues to liaise with the government of Bahrain to reduce misunderstanding and support reform.
4. Landmark gesture for Shiite/Sunni cooperation – As the situation improves in Bahrain, Iran could potentially invest in landmark gestures that would further enhance the sort of cooperation and peaceful coexistence that had, prior to the events of the last two years, been the characteristic of the relations between all elements of Bahraini population, particularly the Sunni and Shiite Muslims, e.g. a mixed school.  

/ Ends